LS polls 7th phase: What happened in these 13 seats of UP in 2014, what may happen this time

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India
oi-Vikas SV

New Delhi, Could 18: Because the judgement day Could 23 attracts close to, the anxiousness and impatience have gripped the nation, and virtually everyone seems to be asking only one query, “Who will win the elections?”. The BJP stormed to energy in 2014 using on ‘Modi wave’ and ended a decade lengthy rule of the Congress-led UPA authorities.

What contributed most in direction of BJP single handedly getting a full majority was an exceedingly good efficiency within the Hindi-belt, particularly within the Uttar Pradesh.

The voting for the seventh and remaining section of the Lok Sabha election 2019 will likely be held on on Could 19. A complete of 59 seats unfold throughout seven states and one Union territory will vote on Sunday. The Bharatiya Janata Celebration and its allies had managed to win 40 seats of those 59 seats within the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

All about the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections

Of the 59 seats that are going to polls on Could 19, 13 are in Uttar Pradesh, one of the crucial necessary states politically. In 2014, the BJP had gained 12 of those 13 seats and its ally Apna Dal had gained one seat – Mirzapur. Uttar Pradesh is seen as a very powerful state politically as a result of the state sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Profitable 71 out of the 80 seats in 2014 was one of many necessary components which propelled the BJP to energy in 2014.

This time, the BJP is contesting in 11 of those 13 seats and its ally Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal is contesting two seats – Mirzapur and Robertsganj. Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal is contesting two seats – Mirzapur and Robertsganj.

Excessive-profile seats of Varanasi and Gorakhpur are additionally all set to vote within the final section. Varanasi is the house turf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi; whereas Gorakhpur is the citadel of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath which was wrested away from the BJP in 2018 when Yogi vacated the seat to change into CM.

Within the 2014 basic elections, Narendra Modi had gained Varanasi by a margin of three.7 lakh votes, polling 58 % votes from the seat. Not solely that, he had trounced 41 candidates to win from the seat, of which 40 misplaced their deposits. This time to tackle Modi, SP-BSP-RLD ‘Mahagadbandhan’ has fielded Shalini Yadav, daughter-in-law of Shyamlal Yadav, who was elected MP from Varanasi in 1984. The Congress, alternatively, has fielded Ajay Rai from Varanasi. Rai belongs to the Bhumihar group and has a substantial following amongst Bhumihars and Brahmins.

One other high-profile seat is Gorakhpur from the place Adityanath had gained the seat 5 instances in a row between 1998 and 2014. In 214, he had polled 54.6 % votes and gained the seat with a margin of over Three lakh votes. Nevertheless, Adityanath needed to vacate the seat to change into chief minister, and bypolls have been held within the seat in 2018. That is when the BJP misplaced its citadel to SP-BSP mix. That is additionally when SP-BSP realized the facility of their mixed vote share. This time round, the BJP has fielded Brahmin Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan, who in accordance with social gathering leaders enjoys the assist of Adityanath.

Will the MBCs back the BJP again in Purvanchal?

The Nishad Celebration, which has emerged as a drive to reckon with in latest months, enjoys the assist of the Nishad group in Gorakhpur and in districts alongside the Ganga river.

It was Nishad Celebration chief Praveen Nishad who had contested on a Samajwadi ticket and gained the Gorakhpur seat in a by-election final 12 months. He has now joined the BJP. Although the Nishad Celebration is supporting the BJP, the Nishad group, by and huge, is upset with the BJP which has not fulfilled its promise of putting in a statue of Nishad Raj in Gorakhpur.

In Uttar Pradesh, Gazipur and Kushi Nagar seats might maintain a shock. Right here SP-BSP alliance might add to 1 lowest victory margin seats beneath warmth. Union minister Manoj Sinha is going through a problem from SP-BSP alliance together with small margin victory in 2014. Sinha will meet his rival Afzal Ansari from the Bahujan Samaj Celebration (BSP) after 15 years. The same problem is rising in Kushi Nagar seat the place low victory margin and alliance has pushed BJP candidate in defensive mode. In 2014, BJP’s Rajesh Pandey defeated senior Congress chief RPN Singh with lower than 10 per cent vote margin.

What number of will BJP win in Uttar Pradesh?

The opinion polls and surveys present that the BJP might not have the ability to win as many seats in Uttar Pradesh because it did final time. The shortfall could possibly be as many as 20 seats. Nearly all the most important surveys that got here out earlier than the MCC got here into impact predicted that the BJP might win wherever between 45-55 seats out of the 80 seats in UP. This shortfall would harm the saffron social gathering.

We spoke to a veteran journalist who has been following the politics of Uttar Pradesh for over twenty years, and he instructed OneIndia that issues might not turnout to be that dangerous for the BJP as surveys have predicted. Vital modifications have taken place within the political panorama of Uttar Pradesh in the previous couple of weeks.

An alliance, on this case SP-BSP, would work effectively if there’s efficient vote switch. Which means that on seats the place one ally is contesting, the opposite alliance associate should convey successfully to their voters that they’re in alliance and they need to vote for his or her ally. Will this truly occur on the bottom? Will the BSP voters vote for SP the place Mayawati has not fielded candidates?

‘Prestige’ seat Gorakhpur: Major hurdles for the BJP

“The BJP may win 60 seats in Uttar Pradesh. As per my sources, Mayawati is not willing to transfer votes to SP in seats where BSP is not contesting. Mayawati wants to emerge as a kingmaker and wants to play a major role in next government formation. She wants to have more say and wants to win more seats than SP at any cost,” the veteran journalist instructed us.

Now, if the BSP voters chorus from voting for SP in some seats, then what choices have they got? It largely must be a alternative between the BJP and the Congress. In 2014, the Dalits and OBC had voted for the BJP in good numbers which was an necessary purpose for BJP’s thumping efficiency, and it additionally explains why the BSP drew a clean. The veteran journalist stated that the higher caste votes, and a mix of Dalit and OBC votes is prone to propel the BJP to 60 seats mark.

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